Europe's Shifting Alliances Tested by Wars in Ukraine and Gaza Under Trump

Europe's political and military ties are shifting as conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza reshape global alliances. During Donald Trump's second term, the US has maintained its NATO commitments but turned its focus toward the Middle East. Meanwhile, Britain is moving closer to its European neighbours, while the EU struggles to assert influence in either war.

Trump has kept US troops in Europe and stayed in NATO, despite earlier speculation about a withdrawal. Yet his attention has largely shifted to the Middle East, leaving European leaders with limited sway over his policies. In Ukraine, his attempts to broker peace talks have stalled, leaving the 3½-year war unresolved. Under bipartisan pressure and lobbying from Kyiv and European allies, he imposed sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sector.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already pushed many European nations to boost military spending. But Europe's role in the Israel-Hamas conflict remains weak, with the EU holding little leverage over Israel. A temporary ceasefire in Gaza eased some criticism of Israel's actions, though tensions persist.

The EU, led by Ursula von der Leyen, suspended some support for Israel and proposed sanctions against extremist ministers and violent settlers. This stance briefly aligned with hopes for Trump's 'Board of Peace' plan—one that excludes a Palestinian state. Still, no clear changes in EU-US relations have emerged from these efforts.

Trump's diplomacy on Gaza has sidelined European governments, reinforcing his central role in negotiations. European leaders, meanwhile, have found it difficult to shape his approach to either conflict.

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue to test Europe's influence on the world stage. With Trump prioritising the Middle East and Britain aligning more closely with its neighbours, the EU faces challenges in shaping outcomes. Military spending is rising, but diplomatic leverage remains limited in both conflicts.